ESG uncertainty, economic growth, and tourism performance in the United States: A wavelet quantile mediation and moderation analysis
The United States tourism sector faces growing exposure to sustainability-related uncertainty and shiftingmacroeconomic conditions. This study examines the direct effect of ESG uncertainty (ESGU) on tourist arrivals(TOR) and investigates whether economic growth (ECOG) moderates or mediates this relationship. Using quarterlydata for 2002–2025, the analysis applies a wavelet quantile regression framework extended to mediation andmoderation, allowing effects to vary across distributional states and short-, medium-, and long-term horizons. Thedirect effect of ESGU on TOR is nonlinear and horizon-specific: in the short term, ESGU reduces arrivals at theextreme lower quantile (τ = 0.01) but is associated with higher arrivals at the upper tail (τ = 0.95). In the mediumterm, a positive ESGU effect persists at upper quantiles (τ = 0.60–0.80). Economic growth does not significantlymoderate the ESGU-tourism relationship at any quantile or horizon. As a mediator, ESGU affects economic growthpositively only at the lower tail in the short term, but negatively at selected quantiles in the medium and long term.Since economic growth supports tourism at medium- and long-term upper and lower tails, the indirect effect ofESGU on tourism through growth is negative and significant in the medium and long term at distributionalextremes, though absent in the short term. These findings point to the importance of horizon- and state-specificpolicy design for managing sustainability-related uncertainty in the U.S. tourism sector.